posted
No question about it. The presidential election of 2004 is going to be a heated one. But I've heard two urban legends floating around the Net concerning the election.
1. The US or one of our allies actually has Osama Bin Laden in custody, but is waiting until close to election time to announce it, thus ensuring Dubya's victory.
2. Billionaire George Soros, an outspoken critic of the president, has hinted at using his financial influence to trigger an economic disaster, hurting the American economy and thus ensuring Dubya's defeat.
As a voter, I think these both sound pretty farfetched. But are they true?
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posted
While I don't believe the US already has Bin Laden, I think it's feasible they they are not currently looking for him the the zeal they will have in the run up to the election.
I would not be surprised at all if Bin Laden was found at a 'convenient' time.
Although it's difficult to know exactly how much of a priority this is to Bush:
quote: "The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him." George W. Bush, September 13, 2001
quote: "I don't know where he [bin Laden] is. I have no idea and I really don't care. It's not that important. It's not our priority." George W. Bush, March 13, 2002
Posts: 1710 | From: Newcastle, UK | Registered: Aug 2002
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quote:Originally posted by BertRaccoon: 1. The US or one of our allies actually has Osama Bin Laden in custody, but is waiting until close to election time to announce it, thus ensuring Dubya's victory.
Wasn't there some sort of scandal in which the release of the Iranian hostages was put off until after the 1980 elections, ensuring Jimmy Carter's ultimate defeat?
-------------------- The opinions expressed herein do not represent those of any rational human being and are solely for the purpose of entertainment. Posts: 487 | From: Brick City (Newark), NJ | Registered: Jan 2003
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quote:Originally posted by reflex: Wasn't there some sort of scandal in which the release of the Iranian hostages was put off until after the 1980 elections, ensuring Jimmy Carter's ultimate defeat?
A lot of people believe that Reagan and Bush (the elder) conspired with the Iranians to keep the hostages in Tehran until after the elections. (They were, in fact, only released on Reagan's inauguration day.)
No hard evidence has ever been put forward, and, frankly, this would be an act of high treason that even I (and I hate him with vast passion) can't believe Reagan could be capable of.
(Now, as for trading weapons for hostages, yes, we know that Reagan *did* do that. As for selling cocaine in Los Angeles, there is some evidence, but nothing conclusive.)
Silas
-------------------- When on music's mighty pinion, souls of men to heaven rise, Then both vanish earth's dominion, man is native to the skies. Posts: 16801 | From: San Diego, CA | Registered: Sep 2000
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Ursa Major
The Red and the Green Stamps
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quote:Originally posted by Silas Sparkhammer:
No hard evidence has ever been put forward, and, frankly, this would be an act of high treason that even I (and I hate him with vast passion) can't believe Reagan could be capable of.
But do you doubt William Casey, Richard Allen or Robert McFarlane were capable of it?
The Reagan people were all about "plausable deniability". All Reagan had to do was let it be known that he didn't want an October surprise and his cadre of former CIA employees (Carter fired about 600 of them) would have happily taken care of the rest.
I'm not saying it happened but it isn't quite as wacky a theory as some like to paint it.
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posted
Let's not forget Reagan's most prominent former CIA employee: Bush was a former CIA director.
-------------------- "Well, it looks we're on our own ... again."--Rev. Lovejoy Posts: 3572 | From: St. Louis, MO | Registered: Sep 2003
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BertRaccoon
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What about the other UL? Is it true that Soros is going to try to trigger an economic disaster to wreck the economy so that Dubya will lose the election?
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George Soros is credited with bringing down the British pound in "Who's Afraid of George Soros?". He's returned to control of the company that he used to bring down the pound; however, the market is in a different position that it was back then and Quantum is not as powerful as it once was.
posted
If the US economy is so fragile that one wealthy individual can bring it down, then we're in bigger trouble than anyone thinks. 12.5 or 15 or 40 million may seem like quite a lot of money to me, but it's chump change on the national economic scene.
My opinion of the OP's veracity: pish and/or tosh.
Four Five Kitties
-------------------- If swimming is so good for your figure, how do you explain whales? Posts: 13275 | From: Kindergarten World, Massachusetts | Registered: Jul 2003
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Ursa Major
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quote:Originally posted by Four Kitties: If the US economy is so fragile that one wealthy individual can bring it down, then we're in bigger trouble than anyone thinks. 12.5 or 15 or 40 million may seem like quite a lot of money to me, but it's chump change on the national economic scene. Four Five Kitties
A dash of pepper won't make you sick but it will cause you to exhibit a symptom of sickness.
For some stupid reason we look to the New York Stock Exchange as an indicator of national economic health. A wealthy, influencial individual need not even spend money to precipitate a dramatic result in the market. He merely needs to sell a huge chunk of stock and the lemmings will follow. Imagine what the result would be if Bill Gates suddenly put in a sell order for all his MS stock.
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tabard love-innkeeper
The Red and the Green Stamps
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quote:Originally posted by Jason the Jinxed: George Soros is credited with bringing down the British pound in "Who's Afraid of George Soros?". He's returned to control of the company that he used to bring down the pound; however, the market is in a different position that it was back then and Quantum is not as powerful as it once was.
In other words, Soros is alleged to have triggered the end of the economic disaster of a managed currency policy! The pegging of the pound to the deutschmark (to oversimplify the policy somewhat) was clearly unsustainable in 1992. Soros saw this and bet hugely on the pound falling to levels that were justifiable on the fundamentals. He may have made the correction happen quicker than it otherwise would, but he couldn't have successfully decided to move the market permanently in whichever direction the whim took him.
quote:Originally posted by Four Kitties: If the US economy is so fragile that one wealthy individual can bring it down, then we're in bigger trouble than anyone thinks.
Exactly. It isn't.
quote:Originally posted by Ursa Major For some stupid reason we look to the New York Stock Exchange as an indicator of national economic health. A wealthy, influencial individual need not even spend money to precipitate a dramatic result in the market. He merely needs to sell a huge chunk of stock and the lemmings will follow. Imagine what the result would be if Bill Gates suddenly put in a sell order for all his MS stock.
There are much tighter exchange rules now to prevent the avalance effects of 1929 and 1987. The nearest recent parallel was the steep, but not nearly so sudden falls of 2000, and again, they brought the market to a more rational level. I doubt they did much harm to Gore. Are the NYSE and NASDAQ really treated as reliable indicators of economic health, to anywhere near the extent that people look at their own and their neighbours' personal economic circumstances? There are many more private investors than there used to be, but probably not too many who feel stock market swings in their innermost pockets.
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quote:Originally posted by Ursa Major: For some stupid reason we look to the New York Stock Exchange as an indicator of national economic health. A wealthy, influencial individual need not even spend money to precipitate a dramatic result in the market. He merely needs to sell a huge chunk of stock and the lemmings will follow. Imagine what the result would be if Bill Gates suddenly put in a sell order for all his MS stock.
Uh, do you know how the stock exchange works?
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posted
I think what the OP was discussing could more accurately be classified as rumors than ULs. So far, the biggest UL I've seen in this campaign season is the truncated 1971 Kerry testimony that makes it look like he accused soldiers in Vietnam of rape, torture and other war crimes, when in fact he was recounting testimonials by soldiers who said they had engaged in such behavior.
Don Gato
Posts: 951 | From: The place to be | Registered: Mar 2000
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quote:Originally posted by Silas Sparkhammer: No hard evidence has ever been put forward, and, frankly, this would be an act of high treason that even I (and I hate him with vast passion) can't believe Reagan could be capable of.
Silas
Why not? Nixon did the same thing with the Vietnamese in the runup to the '68 eelction -- he persuaded them to wait until he was in office, and they could get a better deal with him that LBJ was offering.
Of course, Nixon then increased the bombing, signaling that he was ready to backstab anyone and everyone.
Pogue
-------------------- Let's drink to the causes in your life: Your family, your friends, the union, your wife. Posts: 11325 | From: Kentucky | Registered: Nov 2000
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cartographic_works
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There was a news blip a few weeks back from a military "higher-up" who wished to remain anonymous (hmmm..wonder why that was?).
If I remember right, he essentially felt confident (wink wink) that OBL would be caught sometime in 2004.
quote:1. The US or one of our allies actually has Osama Bin Laden in custody, but is waiting until close to election time to announce it, thus ensuring Dubya's victory.
I figured this would be one...
The UL has somehow mutated into having a date on it- November 9th. I'm not completely sure why this date is so believed, but it's the hot date on most tellings here in good ol' N. Arizona.
quote:Originally posted by cartographic_works: There was a news blip a few weeks back from a military "higher-up" who wished to remain anonymous (hmmm..wonder why that was?).
If I remember right, he essentially felt confident (wink wink) that OBL would be caught sometime in 2004.
i dont think this is the same guy...this guy gives his name and just says "before 2005." the other guy said something much stronger like "promised" or "guaranteed" he would be caught this year, and was anonymous.
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quote:Originally posted by Ursa Major: For some stupid reason we look to the New York Stock Exchange as an indicator of national economic health. A wealthy, influencial individual need not even spend money to precipitate a dramatic result in the market. He merely needs to sell a huge chunk of stock and the lemmings will follow. Imagine what the result would be if Bill Gates suddenly put in a sell order for all his MS stock.
Uh, do you know how the stock exchange works?
I thought that what Ursa said was correct. I mean if I knew Bill Gates sold all his stock I would Damn sure sell mine as fast as I could. (no I don't have microsoft stock, I should be so lucky) But I do have stock in a Company that is in the papers all the friggen time. I also have a 401k going into different accounts. But I don't know if what I am doing is correct or not. I have asked several people to help me understand what is going on and no one seems to be able to answer me. So I ask My fellow Snopesters, where can I go to learn more about small investing and my 401.
Chappell
-------------------- Go Jimmie Go! This is your year! Posts: 676 | From: Texas | Registered: May 2003
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posted
The NYSE would stop trading of Microsoft stock if Gates tried to sell off. In addition, if the Dow dropped below certain level, "circuit breakers" are tripped to halt trading temporarily. Also, although Bill Gates is worth 40+ billion dollars, thats not even a drop in the ocean compared to the total value of the Dow. Gates couldnt do it and Soros most certainly could not do it.
For small investing, I recommend The Warren Buffett Way. To summarize; * Dont invest in a good stock. Invest in a good company * Dont buy a stock unless youre prepared to hold it long term * Avoid stocks that issue dividends.
Just remember that the market isnt the only place you can invest your money. Figure out your priorities and what you want out of your investments and talk with a professional.
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tabard love-innkeeper
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quote:Originally posted by JudahPBenjamin: The NYSE would stop trading of Microsoft stock if Gates tried to sell off.
How? Would they call the NASDAQ and ask them to stop it trading?
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