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Author Topic: CNN Poll: Hillary Clinton vs. Hillary Rodham Clinton
Echinodermata Q. Taft
It Came Upon a Midnight Clearance


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In a CNN poll released Friday, if the 2008 Presidential election were held today, Hillary Rodham Clinton would beat John McCain by a 51%-44% margin.

However, John McCain would edge out Hillary Clinton, 48% to 47%.

On the other hand, if her opponent was Rudy Giulliani, Clinton would win in either case -- but Hillary Clinton wins by a bigger margin than Hillary Rodham Clinton.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/20/poll.08/index.html

Either this demonstrates something really funky about people's perceptions of names -- or it demonstrates that the term "margin of error" actually means something.

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TwoGuyswithaHat
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I was actually just talking with my dad about this poll tonight. It's one of those things that boggles the mind.

Actually, I'd kind of like to see how the questions were structured in this. It is possible they were asked in such a way (however inadvertant) that it influenced the outcome.

Then again, it simply could be as you said in that "margin of error" means something.

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In politics, absurdity is not a handicap - Napoleon Bonaparte

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Ramblin' Dave, quietly making noise
Markdown, the Herald Angels Sing


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It's interesting that the results aren't consistent - she fares better using her maiden name against McCain, but worse against Saint Rudy. That makes me think it probably is margin-of-error noise more than anything else.
It's always been conventional wisdom that her husband lost his first re-election as governor of Arkansas in 1980 in part because she had never taken his name. (That's why she became Hillary Clinton rather than Hillary Rodham in the first place.) I've always wondered if there really was anything to that. It's probably not the kind of thing you can capture in polls or focus groups, although some people back then would probably have been fairly open about hating feminists that much.

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Another lifetime I'd have fallen in love with you
Swept away by my feelings, ashamed and confused
But just now it's enough to be walking with you
Let the mystery play as it will! -Lui Collins

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TwoGuyswithaHat
Happy Holly Days


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quote:
Originally posted by Ramblin' Dave, quietly making noise:
It's probably not the kind of thing you can capture in polls or focus groups

But, I wouldn't be surprised if Hilary does decide to make a run in '08 if her handlers do decide to undertake a similar poll to determine the best way to market her to the voters in the way this poll has.

Similarily, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Republicans muckrakers have undertaken such a poll in the hopes of trying to find the best way to spin something so inoccuous as a name in their favour. Actually, why waste the money they can boil it down to one of two (point five) things: a.) As Hilary Rodham Clinton, she's trying to distance herself from her husband or b.) as Hilary Clinton, she's no different than Bill or b.5) Bill is trying to skirt the constitution by having his wife run.

Who knew it would be so easy to be a Republican muckraker. Turn your mind off and run.

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In politics, absurdity is not a handicap - Napoleon Bonaparte

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Ramblin' Dave, quietly making noise
Markdown, the Herald Angels Sing


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quote:
Originally posted by TwoGuyswithaHat:

b.5) Bill is trying to skirt the constitution by having his wife run.

And they would no doubt use the word "skirt" as a wink-wink, nudge-nudge to chauvinists everywhere. [Roll Eyes]

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Another lifetime I'd have fallen in love with you
Swept away by my feelings, ashamed and confused
But just now it's enough to be walking with you
Let the mystery play as it will! -Lui Collins

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Sara at home
Ding Dong! Merrily on High Definition TV


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I'd really like to see the script the pollsters used when they talked to the people. I wonder if there was any change in the order of names mentioned.

This poll could suggest any number of thing: some people don't pay much attention to what pollsters are saying; some people just respond off the top of their heads to get through the poll and off the phone; depending on how the script reads, people answer with the first (or last) name mentioned. Of course, those things are what the margin of error is all about.

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Assume that all my posts will be edited at least once. Dyslexic -- can't spell, can't type, can't proofread.

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Meaty Pop
Remembrances of Things Bass


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quote:
Originally posted by Scari at haunted home:
I'd really like to see the script the pollsters used when they talked to the people. I wonder if there was any change in the order of names mentioned.

This poll could suggest any number of thing: some people don't pay much attention to what pollsters are saying; some people just respond off the top of their heads to get through the poll and off the phone; depending on how the script reads, people answer with the first (or last) name mentioned. Of course, those things are what the margin of error is all about.

In general, the ordering of names is changed for each survey to eliminate the bias you're talking about. For real opinion polls, eliminating bias from the questions is a big issue, and many things from word order, question structure, etc. are looked at to try to improve this. The surveys are designed to try to eliminate the effect of any of the factors you mentioned and more.

Meaaty Pop

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Sara at home
Ding Dong! Merrily on High Definition TV


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quote:
Originally posted by Meaty Pop:
In general, the ordering of names is changed for each survey to eliminate the bias you're talking about.


For each person surveyed, right? Because this is just one survey.

quote:
For real opinion polls, eliminating bias from the questions is a big issue, and many things from word order, question structure, etc. are looked at to try to improve this. The surveys are designed to try to eliminate the effect of any of the factors you mentioned and more.
I know, which is why I wanted to see the script for this survey.

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Assume that all my posts will be edited at least once. Dyslexic -- can't spell, can't type, can't proofread.

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Doug4.7
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I thought she had actually not changed her name. In other words, her "real" name is Hillary Rodham. She just started adding the "Clinton" because people were upset with her being so "independent" from her husband (i.e., didn't love him enough to take his name [Roll Eyes] ).

Note, my wife is one of those who "doesn't love her husband enough to take his name".

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And now for something completely different...

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Jenn
Layaway in a Manger


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quote:
Originally posted by Doug4.7:
I thought she had actually not changed her name.

In some jurisdictions simply beginning to use one's married name is seen as equally valid to going through the paperwork. Wasn't she sworn in as senator as Hillary Rodham Clinton, though? I figured they would have to use legal names for that sort of oath.

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callee
It Came Upon a Midnight Clearance


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This poll reminds me of that great west wing episode where all show josh keeps repeating a poll the opposition put out, "68% of americans think we spend too much on foreign aid, 42% think we should spend less," and finally at the end of the show someone asks him why he keeps repeating those results and, in exasperation, he exclaims "because that means there's 26% of americans who think we spend too much on foreign aid, but don't think we should spend less!!!" (or something like that)

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a moment for old friends now estranged, victims of the flux of alliances and changing perceptions. There was something there once, and that something is worth honoring as well. - John Carroll

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Sara at home
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quote:
Originally posted by Doug4.7:
I thought she had actually not changed her name. In other words, her "real" name is Hillary Rodham.

Out of curiosity, where is a married woman's "real" name recorded as her "real" name?

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Assume that all my posts will be edited at least once. Dyslexic -- can't spell, can't type, can't proofread.

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Avril
Happy Xmas (Warranty Is Over)


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Isn't it just based upon the marriage license? At that moment, you become a person with a legal alias, don't you? You can either be Ms. MaidenName or Mrs. Husband'sName and everything is fine, either way.

I've begun to think that I'm unlikely to ever change my name for the stupidest reason--I want all my degrees to match, and then, I want people to know that they belong to me when they come into my office!

"The Future Dr." Avril

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Doug4.7
Angels Wii Have Heard on High


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quote:
Originally posted by Avril:
Isn't it just based upon the marriage license? At that moment, you become a person with a legal alias, don't you? You can either be Ms. MaidenName or Mrs. Husband'sName and everything is fine, either way.

I don't know. All I know is my wife would have had to get various documents changed to become Mrs. Doug4.7. So she just didn't and kept her "own" name. Also for the reason you mentioned: she wants all her publications to be in the same name.

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And now for something completely different...

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Aud
We Three Blings


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I think of whatever is on my passport and social security card is my "real" name.

Who's wants to ask to see Hillary's SSN.

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blucanary
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I was surprised how easy it was to change my name on my SS card. I just took in my old one and my marriage certificate and they issued me a new one with the right name. Almost scary really.

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I would add my signature but the pen won't write on the screen.

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Echinodermata Q. Taft
It Came Upon a Midnight Clearance


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quote:
Originally posted by Ramblin' Dave, quietly making noise:
It's always been conventional wisdom that her husband lost his first re-election as governor of Arkansas in 1980 in part because she had never taken his name.

Bill Clinton, himself, in his autobiography, attributed his loss primarily to his signing a bill for a highway improvement program funded by an increase in the vehicle registration fee. He had originally proposed funding the program a different way, but when the legislature altered it, he decided to sign it anyway, figuring that it was better than no highway improvement program. The increase in the fee proved massively unpopular. At that time, Arkansas residents had to drive to the DMV to renew in person; some rural residents drove very long distances to the nearest office, only to discover they hadn't brought enough money with them.

Clinton described meeting one voter when he was running for a later term who said he'd voted against him because "you raised my car tags" -- but would vote for him now, on the grounds that he'd learned his lesson and was the person least likely to do it again. Over-all, Clinton said signing the bill was the second-worst political decision he ever made -- the worst, naturally, being agreeing to an independent counsel for Whitewater.

On the subject of Hillary (Rodham) Clinton, a couple of pieces I've just run across:

Cheney says Hillary Clinton could win White House

Anna Quindlen on The Hillary Questions

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Hope for the future! http://www.runobama.com

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Sara at home
Ding Dong! Merrily on High Definition TV


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Marriage license have the names of the people getting married and declare that they have been. The woman's maiden names is listed. At least that's the way it is on every one I've seen. And the birth certificates I've seen list the mother's maiden name.

The social security card has he name that the person used when s/he applied for it. If a woman changes her name when she marries by doesn't change the name on her social security, she would have to file her taxes under that name, though that wasn't always the case. Other than that, it doesn't mean anything. I've been married twice. My social security cards is and always has been in my maiden name. During both marriages (and for some time afterwards) I used my husbands' last names. After my second marriage, I kept many financial accounts in my maiden name (which I had legally switched back to.) My driver's licences have been in both married names, my maiden name and now my maiden and married name without a hyphen. I don't have a passport. Am I confusing you? So tell me, what is my "real" name?

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Assume that all my posts will be edited at least once. Dyslexic -- can't spell, can't type, can't proofread.

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