posted
Comment: I read this one in Stephen King's the stand. It was said by Glen Batemen *character* that out of all the plane and train disasters were on average only 66 percent occupied. *His resourse from a certain auther that wrote a book on this theory* Leading to the theory that people have a vague physcic power to predcict such disasters. I read this around page 530 or a little higher... it was in the complete and unedited version.
Posts: 36029 | From: Admin | Registered: Feb 2000
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The above page talks about it. Don't know how accurate that page is, though.
"One of the better examples of this comes from the airline industry. In spite of their excellent safety record, airplanes do crash. Out of these sad statistics comes a small light of hope. Analysis of the seating population of airplanes that crash vs. airplanes that don't crash indicates 30 percent of the normal passengers decide not to go on that plane. In other words, planes that crash have about 30 percent fewer people on them than on planes that don't crash."
* Probably not that accurate, as there are no cites for that page.
Morrigan
-------------------- "The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep." Robert Frost, Stopping by the Woods on a Snowy Evening Posts: 1701 | From: Michigan | Registered: Mar 2001
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The author of the study was a James D.L. Staunton. It was written in 1958. It was published in a sociology journal.
From what I am able to find in searching through Proquest, FirstSearch, and JSTOR Stephen King made the whole thing up. No one named James D.L. Staunton conducted a study on this. No one with the name Staunton, Stanton, or Stunton conducted any studies on plane crashes.
ETA: The only place I can even find the name is on sites dedicated to The Stand.
posted
Staunton is also the doctor of Abigail Freemantle. Coincidence?
Morrigan
-------------------- "The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep." Robert Frost, Stopping by the Woods on a Snowy Evening Posts: 1701 | From: Michigan | Registered: Mar 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Morrigan: "Analysis of the seating population of airplanes that crash vs. airplanes that don't crash indicates 30 percent of the normal passengers decide not to go on that plane. In other words, planes that crash have about 30 percent fewer people on them than on planes that don't crash."
The idea that "30 percent of the normal passengers decide not to go on that plane" is not the same thing as "planes that crash have about 30 percent fewer people on them".
Looking at the total number of passengers is irrelevant. Looking at the total number of sold-but-empty seats is slightly more relevant, but even then there could be other reasons (such as time of day or weather conditions) that would cause those seats to be empty.
-------------------- Come on, come on - spin a little tighter Come on, come on - and the world's a little brighter Posts: 5595 | From: Columbus, OH : The Soccer Capital of America | Registered: Sep 2002
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Looking at the total number of passengers is irrelevant. Looking at the total number of sold-but-empty seats is slightly more relevant, but even then there could be other reasons (such as time of day or weather conditions) that would cause those seats to be empty.
If there are psychic premonitions, why can't they occur before a ticket is bought in the first place?
Posts: 201 | From: Toronto, ON | Registered: Jun 2006
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posted
Fair point, but my second point (other reasons for the differences) still stands.
ETA: Going back and looking at what I was responding to, my original point stands as well - those two phrases are not equivalent, and that was the angle from which I was arguing.
-------------------- Come on, come on - spin a little tighter Come on, come on - and the world's a little brighter Posts: 5595 | From: Columbus, OH : The Soccer Capital of America | Registered: Sep 2002
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