posted
My e-mail site is a charitable one, and has buttons that you can click to make "free" donations (the page has sponsors that donate a set amount of money for each click in return for their adverts being displayed on the page that you are sent to). If you make a certian amount of clicks, you get sent an e-"butterfly", just a kind of way to keep track of how much you do and a sort of mini-incentive.
Anyway, when getting one, it repeats the oft-told saying:
quote:The flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil can set off a storm in Texas.
But, is this actually true? Would I be right in saying that it's actually not supposed to be a real statement of fact, but rather an illustration of some fundamental quantum principles?
In other words, a way of saying "this tiny event can lead to this slightly bigger one, which can lead to this bigger one...and so on", rather than saying "if a butterfly flaps its wings, then it does cause such big events to happen? Because, surely, there are hundreds and millions of other factors which all come in to play equally or more?
-------------------- seriously , everyone on here , just trys to give someone crap about something they do !! , its shitting me to tears. Posts: 16061 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2000
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posted
Actually, this is true. The US govt. has spent billions in butterfly defense measures, with limited success.
butterfly effect-"The idea is that small variations in the initial conditions of a dynamical system produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effectPosts: 41 | From: Jacksonville, FL | Registered: Jul 2005
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quote:Originally posted by trollface: My e-mail site is a charitable one, and has buttons that you can click to make "free" donations (the page has sponsors that donate a set amount of money for each click in return for their adverts being displayed on the page that you are sent to). If you make a certian amount of clicks, you get sent an e-"butterfly", just a kind of way to keep track of how much you do and a sort of mini-incentive.
Anyway, when getting one, it repeats the oft-told saying:
quote:The flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil can set off a storm in Texas.
But, is this actually true? Would I be right in saying that it's actually not supposed to be a real statement of fact, but rather an illustration of some fundamental quantum principles?
quote:Lorenz started to look for a simpler system that had sensitive dependence on initial conditions. His first discovery had twelve equations, and he wanted a much more simple version that still had this attribute. He took the equations for convection, and stripped them down, making them unrealistically simple. The system no longer had anything to do with convection, but it did have sensitive dependence on its initial conditions, and there were only three equations this time.
Before chaos theory, scientists expected small initial differences (such as the flap of a butterfly's wings) to dampen out over time, and for a system (either natural, or of equations used to model a natural system) to converge on a partcular solution. Chaos theory explains why such systems diverge instead, why long term weather modelling is theoretically impossible and why the butterfly's wing flap can make such a difference. The "storm in Texas" is presumed to be the divergence from would've happened in the initial system (the world's weather) without the butterfly and what happened given the difference in initial condiions (ie, the flap)
buf 'but the effects are, by definition, chaotic' ungla
-------------------- "Pardon him. Theodotus: he is a barbarian, and thinks that the customs of his tribe and island are the laws of nature."
George Bernard Shaw, Caesar and Cleopatra Posts: 4847 | From: Washington, DC | Registered: Jun 2001
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posted
Thanks guys, that's pretty much what I thought.
-------------------- seriously , everyone on here , just trys to give someone crap about something they do !! , its shitting me to tears. Posts: 16061 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2000
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posted
The orogins of the term come from 1961 when Edwrad Lorenz, MIT mathematician and meteorologist, used a computer to construct a mathematical model of the weather. Lorenz wanted to re-examine a date sequence and instead of running the entire program, he loaded data from the earlier printout and began the program somewhere in the middle. He did not realize it at the time, but in the original run the computer was figuring to 6 places but only printing out 3. Thus, the figures Lorenz entered for the second run were slightly different from the first. The results were wildly different, thereby demonstrating that in complex systems small initial variations could produce profound differences down the line. In 1963 he wrote and presented a paper about the effect and a meteoroligist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings would be enough to alter the course of weather forever. In 1972 Lorenz presented another talk, only now the seagull had become a butterfly and the talk was entitled "Predictability: Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?" (Thus, the Butterfly Effect.) (This info was culled from various sites at Caltech and pha.jhu.edu - whatever the heck that is.)
-------------------- I have no spur to prick the sides of my intent... Posts: 138 | From: Philadelphia, PA | Registered: Oct 2005
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posted
So, for want of a nail, the kingdom could be lost...
On the other hand, the butterfly's or seagull's flap could simply damp out. i.e., small changes in present conditions don't *necessarily* lead to large changes in future conditions.
I am reminded, however, of an old Mad Magazine cartoon by Dave Berg, where a guy smooshes a bug and, when asked what he is doing, replies, "Changing the future."
Silas
Posts: 16801 | From: San Diego, CA | Registered: Sep 2000
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posted
Has anyone seen the movie The Butterfly Effect? It's a good movie, I like it. Basically it's about a guy who figures out how to go into his past childhood. When he changes one thing he comes back to the present and 100's of other things are changed.
The first time I heard the butterfly effect Theory was on ER..I forget which episode. In any case I wrote a long story about how the wind blowing in Africa could cause an epidemic in the united states. I have since lost that story. Oh well.
~Monica
-------------------- "Run for five minutes? Why don't you just shoot me now?"--Comic Book Guy (Simpsons) Posts: 219 | From: Cleveland, Ohio | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
The problem with using choas theory to change weather. Is that you have to first find the Quantum Weather Butterfly Papilio tempestae (10 points for the referance) and kill it before it causes trouble. The next problem is that now that you hunted it down and killed it. Did your actions is doing the job or the absents of the butterfly make thing better or worse. That stom just as easly now become a hurricane.
Posts: 597 | From: Bellingham, WA | Registered: Nov 2005
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-------------------- seriously , everyone on here , just trys to give someone crap about something they do !! , its shitting me to tears. Posts: 16061 | From: UK | Registered: Sep 2000
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posted
Isn't the flap of a butterfly's wing just as likely to stop a potential storm? And isn't it probable that this butterfly's flap will cancel out that butterfly's flap, and the staus quo prevails?
-------------------- Back in the days before electricity, we were forced to watch TV by candlelight. Posts: 229 | From: Paoli, PA | Registered: Dec 2005
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posted
Not if you've nicked all the butterflies, go on nobby empty your pockets.
-------------------- All the world's a face, And all the men and women merely acne. Posts: 673 | From: Glasgow, Scotland | Registered: Oct 2005
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quote:Originally posted by NobbyNobbs: Isn't the flap of a butterfly's wing just as likely to stop a potential storm? And isn't it probable that this butterfly's flap will cancel out that butterfly's flap, and the staus quo prevails?
Actually, the entire point of chaos theory is to explain why the different flaps from the two butterflies won't cancel each other out. This is not to say that one butterfly wing flap = instant storm, just that the most minute difference in initial conditions can lead to dramatically different results over time.
buf 'whole lotta flap' ungla
-------------------- "Pardon him. Theodotus: he is a barbarian, and thinks that the customs of his tribe and island are the laws of nature."
George Bernard Shaw, Caesar and Cleopatra Posts: 4847 | From: Washington, DC | Registered: Jun 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Singing in the Drizzle: The problem with using choas theory to change weather. Is that you have to first find the Quantum Weather Butterfly Papilio tempestae (10 points for the referance) and kill it before it causes trouble. The next problem is that now that you hunted it down and killed it. Did your actions is doing the job or the absents of the butterfly make thing better or worse. That stom just as easly now become a hurricane.
I want to know what the caterpillar looks like.
Posts: 340 | From: Redmond, WA | Registered: Jul 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Singing in the Drizzle: The problem with using choas theory to change weather. Is that you have to first find the Quantum Weather Butterfly Papilio tempestae (10 points for the referance) and kill it before it causes trouble. The next problem is that now that you hunted it down and killed it. Did your actions is doing the job or the absents of the butterfly make thing better or worse. That stom just as easly now become a hurricane.
I want to know what the caterpillar looks like.
He sits on a mushroom smoking a Hookah (the indian water pipe not a mis-spelling of a peverse act).
-------------------- All the world's a face, And all the men and women merely acne. Posts: 673 | From: Glasgow, Scotland | Registered: Oct 2005
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posted
Has Chaos Theory ever actually been used to predict anything in the real world, or is it just one of those interesting but effectively useless computer models?
-------------------- "I felt a great disturbance in this farce..." Nodwick in Lich Wars: the Henchman Strikes Back Posts: 167 | From: Myrtle Creek, Oregon ( the State of Confusion) | Registered: Jan 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Ogre4Hire: Has Chaos Theory ever actually been used to predict anything in the real world, or is it just one of those interesting but effectively useless computer models?
Yes, it has. You can look some of the applications up, for example by Google search, something like: practical applications chaos theory
Posts: 4922 | From: Kyoto, Japan | Registered: Sep 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Angel With Wax Wings: Has anyone seen the movie The Butterfly Effect? It's a good movie, I like it. Basically it's about a guy who figures out how to go into his past childhood. When he changes one thing he comes back to the present and 100's of other things are changed.
Haven't seen this one, but the thread title reminded me of a Science Fiction short story that I read a few decades ago. The gist was that there was a company that sponsored time travels into the distant past during which hunters could target dinosaurs that were already destined to soon die from other causes (thus avoiding potential paradoxes). Somehow (and the story never adequately explained this), these sponsors built elaborate boardwalks for the time travelers. One of the hunters stepped off the boardwalk, was berated soundly, and forced to abort the hunt. When they arrived back "home" and found their world radically changed, a butterfly was found to have been crushed under the foot of the offender.
Don't remember title or author at this point, of course. Perhaps others can elucidate - and, of course, I could be remembering poorly
-------------------- "I'm singing and deranged!" Posts: 239 | From: Georgia | Registered: Dec 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Bassist: Haven't seen this one, but the thread title reminded me of a Science Fiction short story that I read a few decades ago. The gist was that there was a company that sponsored time travels into the distant past during which hunters could target dinosaurs that were already destined to soon die from other causes (thus avoiding potential paradoxes). Somehow (and the story never adequately explained this), these sponsors built elaborate boardwalks for the time travelers. One of the hunters stepped off the boardwalk, was berated soundly, and forced to abort the hunt. When they arrived back "home" and found their world radically changed, a butterfly was found to have been crushed under the foot of the offender.
Don't remember title or author at this point, of course. Perhaps others can elucidate - and, of course, I could be remembering poorly
-------------------- "Dear Big Foot Smellers: Please don't quote me on some of this information." John F. Winston Posts: 1707 | From: Camarillo, CA | Registered: Mar 2000
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quote:Originally posted by Bassist: Haven't seen this one, but the thread title reminded me of a Science Fiction short story that I read a few decades ago. The gist was that there was a company that sponsored time travels into the distant past during which hunters could target dinosaurs that were already destined to soon die from other causes (thus avoiding potential paradoxes). Somehow (and the story never adequately explained this), these sponsors built elaborate boardwalks for the time travelers. One of the hunters stepped off the boardwalk, was berated soundly, and forced to abort the hunt. When they arrived back "home" and found their world radically changed, a butterfly was found to have been crushed under the foot of the offender.
Don't remember title or author at this point, of course. Perhaps others can elucidate - and, of course, I could be remembering poorly
This was made into a film. Haven't watched it myself (read the book centuries ago) but it is meant to be pretty dire. I think the only outstanding feature was Ben Kingsley's hair.
-------------------- All the world's a face, And all the men and women merely acne. Posts: 673 | From: Glasgow, Scotland | Registered: Oct 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Bassist: Haven't seen this one, but the thread title reminded me of a Science Fiction short story that I read a few decades ago. The gist was that there was a company that sponsored time travels into the distant past during which hunters could target dinosaurs that were already destined to soon die from other causes (thus avoiding potential paradoxes). Somehow (and the story never adequately explained this), these sponsors built elaborate boardwalks for the time travelers. One of the hunters stepped off the boardwalk, was berated soundly, and forced to abort the hunt. When they arrived back "home" and found their world radically changed, a butterfly was found to have been crushed under the foot of the offender.
Don't remember title or author at this point, of course. Perhaps others can elucidate - and, of course, I could be remembering poorly
So let me get this straight... Time is changed forever because some guy steps on a butterfly... Instead of killing a dinosaur... A dinosaur that probably would have stepped on countless butterflies.... Or other small creatures... Maybe even eaten a couple dinosaurs that would have themselves stepped on countless similar creatures... And yet the people who run this safari are so stupid as to fail to realize that even if THEY don't kill a butterfly, something they kill probably would.
-------------------- "Dear Lord, please protect this rockethouse and all who dwell within..." Posts: 1093 | From: Japan | Registered: Jul 2003
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posted
I think the idea was the dinosaur was scheduled to be killed by a falling try anyway or something like that. Still not very believable though.
Posts: 2352 | From: California | Registered: May 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Angel With Wax Wings: Has anyone seen the movie The Butterfly Effect?
I love that movie. I actually liked seeing Ashton in a serious role, and was pleasently suprised that he did it so well.
-------------------- "My Very Educated Mother Just Said Uh-oh! No...Pluto..."~ Steven Colbert Posts: 3256 | From: Somewhere in Ohio | Registered: Apr 2004
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quote:Originally posted by Wizard of Yendor: I think the idea was the dinosaur was scheduled to be killed by a falling try
It was playing American Football?
-------------------- All the world's a face, And all the men and women merely acne. Posts: 673 | From: Glasgow, Scotland | Registered: Oct 2005
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quote:Originally posted by Wizard of Yendor: I think the idea was the dinosaur was scheduled to be killed by a falling try
It was playing American Football?
I think they call them "touchdowns". It's Rugby that has "tries".
-------------------- "I always tell the truth. Even when I lie." - Tony Montana Posts: 890 | From: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: Apr 2005
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posted
Well, to point out the obvious consider the following....
Somewhere in south Florida some people are trying to figure out how to get a long list of names on single ballot. Being bureaucrats, they choose the most confusing form - something called the 'butterfly ballot'.
As a result of this, several thousand ballots are accidently cast for a minor third party candidate in one precinct. This throws the ballance of a close election.
From there, various policies may well have diverged in signifgantly different directions, with highly unpredictable consequences.
I wonder what the other timeline would look like...
-------------------- The best measure of a man's honesty isn't his income tax return. It's the zero adjust on his bathroom scale. Arthur C. Clarke (1917 - ) Posts: 244 | From: Ventura, CA | Registered: Sep 2005
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Richard W
Ding Dong! Merrily on High Definition TV
posted
quote:Originally posted by Wizard of Yendor: I think the idea was the dinosaur was scheduled to be killed by a falling try anyway or something like that. Still not very believable though.
Yes, surely building the boardwalk would have had a much greater effect? And what happens to all the bullets that miss the target dinosaur?
Posts: 8725 | From: Ipswich - the UK's 9th Best Place to Sleep! | Registered: Feb 2000
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posted
And the Simpsons did a story where Homer killed the butterfly, found his time had changed, went back and killed a dinosuar, didn't like the new changes, and kept going back and forth until he found a version he could tolerate.
Posts: 457 | From: Sacramento, CA | Registered: Jan 2006
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quote:Originally posted by Bassist: Haven't seen this one, but the thread title reminded me of a Science Fiction short story that I read a few decades ago. The gist was that there was a company that sponsored time travels into the distant past during which hunters could target dinosaurs that were already destined to soon die from other causes (thus avoiding potential paradoxes). Somehow (and the story never adequately explained this), these sponsors built elaborate boardwalks for the time travelers. One of the hunters stepped off the boardwalk, was berated soundly, and forced to abort the hunt. When they arrived back "home" and found their world radically changed, a butterfly was found to have been crushed under the foot of the offender.
Don't remember title or author at this point, of course. Perhaps others can elucidate - and, of course, I could be remembering poorly
So let me get this straight... Time is changed forever because some guy steps on a butterfly... Instead of killing a dinosaur... A dinosaur that probably would have stepped on countless butterflies.... Or other small creatures... Maybe even eaten a couple dinosaurs that would have themselves stepped on countless similar creatures... And yet the people who run this safari are so stupid as to fail to realize that even if THEY don't kill a butterfly, something they kill probably would.
Well, in the spirit of the story:
The dinosaur scheduled for being shot must of course be shot at the time just before it is being hit by the tree that would have killed him anyway. This way, he doesn't kill any butterflies in falling down he wouldn't have killed anyway. Likewise, he doesn't let anything live he would have killed if he hadn't been shot.
Not every butterfly killed does chance the world - like not every butterfly's wings do create a tornado. Only if you kill the butterfly who's wings would have created a tornado that would have done some major damages which in turn would have made a difference for the development of the timeline, then you're in trouble.
The boardwalks would have to be build at a location where modern times excavations have shown a boardwalk to have existed in the early Cambrian Period. Nobody was able to explain these fossiled boardwalks before the possibility of time travel, of course.
This all doesn't explain how the safari company does avoid butterflies to land on the boardwalk by themselfes and be killed by a hunter stepping on them there, though...
-------------------- My spelling is Wobbly. It's good spelling, but it Wobbles, and the letters get in the wrong places. - Pooh Bear Posts: 2209 | From: Hamburg, Germany | Registered: Oct 2004
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