posted
I always get so excited by this kind of stuff. Does that make me a bad person? Ah well. Regardless, that picture of Earth getting pulverized is great!
quote:Originally posted by Loacharr: I always get so excited by this kind of stuff. Does that make me a bad person? Ah well. Regardless, that picture of Earth getting pulverized is great!
Paul (the Mouse) Unwin
The Red and the Green Stamps
posted
Ever notice that the tombstone icon is right next to the earth icon which is right behind the eightball icon?
This object doesn't scare me. A great deal can happen in 17 years. The object that scares me is the one we don't detect until it's a year away - or not at all.
quote:Originally posted by dofwai: That picture is obviously designed to frighten.
That's the stock "oh, sh--! asteroid picture. After seeing that, people won't read the article. They'll assume that's the one with our name on it.
Irresponsible journalism.
ham "it looks the size of the moon" bubba
-------------------- Fundamentally Unfundie since 1975 Posts: 7942 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Jun 2000
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Hippy Chick
The Red and the Green Stamps
posted
I don't know about the US, but in the UK whenever they detect another asteroid that is close to earth we get loads of stories in the media about how if it hit earth it could wipe out a continent/half of the world/the dinosaurs and then right at the end of the report, just when you have started digging a bunker in the garden they casually slip in the fact that the closest this killer asteroid will get to earth is 235 million light years, sheesh!
quote:Originally posted by snopes: ...the most threatening object yet detected...
Worse than Trafficant's wig?
But seriously, fourteen days of observation is way too small a sample to make any certain prediction of impact. I think that this one is going to be just like the 1.2 gazillion near misses that we never knew about. The only difference is that we'll know where to look to see it go by.
But, as others pointed out, if a year or so of observation shows a hit, then 17 years gives us a lot of time to plan for it.
Bob "all day September" K.
Posts: 2079 | From: California | Registered: Feb 2000
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posted
This scares me a bit because I've watched Deep Impact and Armageddon way too many times. It's good to know that we're being told about this but since it won't even come close for another 16 years and the outcome is so iffy, it almost seems silly. I worry about the people who will freak out about it, like they did for the roll over into 2000. Then again, maybe the market for shelters will start up again and someone will at least profit.
sorry, rambling...need food
-------------------- "I'm a leaf in the wind" New Lungs for George Posts: 2719 | From: the other Portland (US) | Registered: Apr 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Garden Enjal: but since it won't even come close for another 16 years and the outcome is so iffy, it almost seems silly.
According to the link I posted above, the 2019 approach is now estimated to be .09288 AU, or about 9 million miles.
The article has probably been on an editors desk for several days. The IAU doesn't usually release detailed info without confirmed observations, which may take awhile. The article may be based on only a few data points, and overhearing an astronomer saying "THAT'S very interesting!"
Posts: 7942 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Jun 2000
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Blues Music Jam
The Red and the Green Stamps
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quote:Originally posted by Garden Enjal: I've watched ... Armageddon way too many times.
Seeing Armageddon ONCE is way too many times.
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quote:Originally posted by Garden Enjal: [QB]This scares me a bit because I've watched Deep Impact and Armageddon way too many times.
Yeah, I also saw Armageddon one time.
How many near (or near in the cosmic sense) misses do we need before we start seriously funding some sort of asteroid defense system, including a more widespread detection system? If this asteroid is actually going to strike Earth (which it won't), nineteen years might be plenty of time to fix the problem. But as things are now, we probably miss far closer dangers all the time.
It's the only natural disaster that is theoretically preventable as well as capable of the extinction of the human race. I think it's worth investing in.
Alchemy
-------------------- Thinking about New England / missing old Japan Posts: 2603 | From: Virginia | Registered: Mar 2001
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Blues Music Jam
The Red and the Green Stamps
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If we've seen this decades in advance, how come in Armageddon they get only a couple of week's notice to stop a "rock the size of Texas"?
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quote:Originally posted by hambubba, Too Sexy for my Fat: Today's IAU figures have it at 16 million miles on Jan. 24, 2019, 6:00 PM. Why is it still in the news?
ham "it ain't a problem no mo. (never was)" bubba
Hmmmm - that figure is only one group's estimate.
Now, I'm not saying they're wrong, but some of these space types can't tell the difference betweem metres and yards. Not a problem when we're shooting stuff into space, but a bit more worrying when things are heading for us.
Posts: 3100 | From: London, UK | Registered: Nov 2001
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quote:Originally posted by Doc J [The uninitiated]: Hmmmm - that figure is only one group's estimate.
Now, I'm not saying they're wrong, but some of these space types can't tell the difference betweem metres and yards.
The IAU? That's where the numbers should have been coming from in the first place. Note that the observation count is going up, thus a better determination of orbit. Only using two data points is like playing pool... hit the cue ball hard enough, and eventually, it WILL hit another one.
ham "Donald in Mathmagic Land" bubba
-------------------- Fundamentally Unfundie since 1975 Posts: 7942 | From: Louisiana | Registered: Jun 2000
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This reminds me of these nitwit hurricane prognosticators.
They say stuff like
quote: Our evolving forecast techniques are based on a variety of global and regional predictors previously shown to be related to forthcoming seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and U.S. landfall probability.
when every year all they do is a wild guess - talk about junk science...
hoi 'at least they're not stock anal-ists' toider
-------------------- No man has a right in America to treat any other man "tolerantly" for tolerance is the assumption of superiority. -Wendell L. Willkie Posts: 3833 | From: Virginia | Registered: Oct 2001
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SNLuver88
The Red and the Green Stamps
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From Yahoo! News:
Last month, an asteroid the size of a soccer field missed the Earth by 75,000 miles (120,675 kilometers) in one of the closest known approaches by an object that size.
My sister and I actually saw that asteroid. At the time, we didn't know what it was. It was at 8:00 at night and we were outside of Wal-Mart. We thought it was an asteroid; my parents thought we were crazy. Then the next day my mom saw on the news that it was indeed an asteroid. It looked pretty close to us...
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Paul (the Mouse) Unwin
The Red and the Green Stamps
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quote:Originally posted by SNLuver88: My sister and I actually saw that asteroid.
Hm. Interesting. How would you describe its appearance? I wouldn't have thought that the object would have been visible to the naked eye.
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javaman
The Red and the Green Stamps
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I'd just found this on Reader's Digest on Feb. 2001 edition. The author of Space Oddessy 2001, Authur C. Clark, predicted that by the year 2019 a(n) asteroid will hit our planet. Here's what he'd said it on his article, "Beyond 2001":
quote:2019 A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greenland and Canada. The long-discussed "Project Spaceguard," to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteriods, is finally activated.
Source: Beyond 2001 by Arthur C. Clarke. Reader's Digest, Feb. 2001
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MWF
The Red and the Green Stamps
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The probability of it hitting earth is below 1 million which means it is the first astoroid to be registered as positive impact risk of the Palermo Scale.
All this means is it's become 'the most threatening object yet detected in space' it doesn't mean is IS going to hit Earth.
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