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Author Topic: Stick your neck out: Election Predictions
Echinodermata Q. Taft
It Came Upon a Midnight Clearance


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OK, fellow would-be pundits...time to put it on the line!

How do you think the mid-term elections are going to come out tomorrow? (Please direct comments on how you think they should come out to other threads.)

I'll lead off:

National: I hear the various pollsters, averaged, are predicting the Democrats will pick up about 29 seats in the House; some are saying as many as 40 are possible. My instinct is that people are going to be a little less eager to leave their incumbents/usual party affiliations than that. I'm going to guess the Dems will pick up right around 20 seats here. That would give them a 9-seat margin of control.

In the Senate, I'll get more specific: I think the Republicans will win in Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming; the Democrats will win in California, Connecticut (actually Lieberman, running as an independent, will win there), Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin; and independent Bernie Sanders will win in Vermont. I'm unsure about Missouri, Montana and Rhode Island. If the Democrats took all three, that would make a 50-50 split -- which ought to keep Dick Cheney busy.

California: Arnold Schwarzenegger will retain the governorship by a healthy margin; the Democrats will probably sweep all the other statewide offices (they might take Insurance Commissioner, is my gut feeling) and easily retain control of both houses of the Legislature. For the ballot propositions, I think the "rebuild California plan," 1A through 1E, will all pass, as will 83 ("Jessica's Law"); the others are likely to fail, though I am not sure about 90 -- that's the eminent domain restriction law, which I personally think has serious problems, but the general idea is popular.

There, my hat is in. Anyone else?

--------------------
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Hope for the future! http://www.runobama.com

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TallGeekyGirl
O Read, O Read, The Manual


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IMO it's really way too close to call between Webb (D) and Allen (R) here in VA Senatorial race. Last poll, they were both within a few points of each other. Webb was slightly ahead, but his lead could easily be swallowed up by the margin of error. It was something like 42% Allen and 46% Webb the last I looked.

And, sadly, I think the "marriage amendment" will pass. [Frown]

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See, if I tell you about it, it won't be a mystery. It'll just be a fact, an ugly, moist fact, squatting on your brain like an octopus. And you don't want an octopus squatting on your brain, do you, son? -- Stan Smith, American Dad

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Joe Bentley
Ding Dong! Merrily on High Definition TV


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//Side prediction//

How smoothly E-voting goes in this election will determine how much it is used in the next one.

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"Existence has no pattern save what we imagine after staring at it for too long." - Rorschach, The Watchmen

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AnglsWeHvHrdOnHiRdr
Happy Xmas (Warranty Is Over)


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I think it's too close to call Tennessee's senate race, as well.

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"When a stupid man is doing something he is ashamed of, he always declares that it is his duty."--George Bernard Shaw

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Steve Eisenberg
The "Was on Sale" Song


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I believe in going by long-term factors rather than looking at the polls, although once you get this close to the election I admit the polls are likely to be right.

Anyway, here's the long term:

quote:
Since the end of World War II, the average loss for a second-term presidency in its sixth year has been 29 House seats and six Senate seats.
I'll go with the historical average.

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"Hillel says yes, naturally, and Shammai says no, and Maimonides is perplexed, and what do I know?"
Julius Lester

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Malruhn
The "Was on Sale" Song


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Let me guess...

Somebody is going to win, and the other side is going to scream, "Those bastards stole the election!!"

Please insert your party of choice into the above.

Jaded and cynical? Not so much...

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Opinions aren't excuses to remain ignorant about subjects, nor are they excuses to never examine one's beliefs & prejudices...

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Errata
Happy Xmas (Warranty Is Over)


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My predictions are in line with EQ Taft. I think the Democrats will get a slim majority in the House, but the Senate will be tied.
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Gibbie
Angels Wii Have Heard on High


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EQT predicts:
quote:
I think the Republicans will win in Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming;
Yea well that's a pretty sure prediction. There is no Democrat running in Indiana. Essentially Lugar is running unopposed but technically he's not, there's a Libertarian candidate.

The 8th House district in Indiana will be close but unfortunately, I think Hostettler (R) will prevail. I will be pleasantly surprised if Ellsworth takes it.

Gibbie

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

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Max_Renn
Jingle Bell Hock


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My predictions, pulled out of my butt:

Dems take the House, they gain 22 seats.

The Senate winds up in an even 50-50 split, or 50-R, 49-D and Joe Lieberman making up the last. Of course, Joe-mentum will probably continue his self-serving drift to the right so many votes along party lines will be 51-49 and Cheney can sit brooding in his cave, un-needed.

Webb and Allen are so close as makes no odds, and we don't find out the results for a few days due to the recount.

Spitzer for NY governor. But that's a gimme.

I miss living in the states; election days was always so exciting. I'd chill in front of CNN with a bowl of popcorn and treat it like the Oscars. It's just not the same up here. Plus I have a date tomorrow night, so I'll only find out what happened after the fact.

Max "yeah, I'm telling everyone" Renn

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Crow T. Robot: Look, I'm already driving, there's no inherent quantity of driving that I can increase! If you want me to go faster, you should say so.

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Steve Eisenberg
The "Was on Sale" Song


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quote:
Originally posted by TallGeekyGirl:
IMO it's really way too close to call between Webb (D) and Allen (R) here in VA Senatorial race. Last poll, they were both within a few points of each other. Webb was slightly ahead, but his lead could easily be swallowed up by the margin of error. It was something like 42% Allen and 46% Webb the last I looked.

I hope Webb wins, partly because of the unfairness of him being attacked for his novels. We have something similar going on in my local State Representative race (PA-149), where the liberal Democratic incumbent, one Daylin Leach, is being attacked for having a supposedly X rated (more like R) humor web site, since taken down, except that the opposition has put it back under another url. Leach's Bush stupidity jokes don't charm me, but Leach makes up for them with bin Laden's reaction to seeing an unveiled woman: Allah, she’s AKBAR!. Not to mention that Leach completely refuses to engage in negative campaigning.

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"Hillel says yes, naturally, and Shammai says no, and Maimonides is perplexed, and what do I know?"
Julius Lester

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Lawgiver
Deck the Malls


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quote:
Originally posted by TallGeekyGirl:
~snip~

And, sadly, I think the "marriage amendment" will pass. [Frown]

I think it will pass in Tennessee also. To make it a constitutional right to discriminate should have everyone worried.

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I looked at my sleeping husband and longed to plunge my elbow through his peaceful face. ~ Annissa

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Sara at home
Ding Dong! Merrily on High Definition TV


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quote:
Originally posted by AnglRdr:
I think it's too close to call Tennessee's senate race, as well.

MSNBC has Ford way behind, double digits, but they did say that another poll has the spread in single digits. Didn't seem like it was too close to call but they had it in their list of races still up in the air.

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Assume that all my posts will be edited at least once. Dyslexic -- can't spell, can't type, can't proofread.

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Morgaine La Raq Star
The "Was on Sale" Song


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Texas will keep Rick Perry as Governor, not because he's the best for the job but because Texans tend to vote Republican (no Chris Bell), they won't vote in a joke (Kinky Friedman) & being female like the late Ann Richards isn't enough (Carole Keeton Strayhorn Rylander Cougar Mellencamp). So basically, most people will hold their nose & vote for Perry.
And somewhere, electronic voting will go wrong & all Hades will break loose.

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I cannot live without books-Thomas Jefferson *~* A child educated only at school is an uneducated child - George Santayana
I'm going to pummel you with such zeal, Buddha will explode! *~* Never miss a good chance to shut up - Will Rogers

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AnglsWeHvHrdOnHiRdr
Happy Xmas (Warranty Is Over)


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quote:
Originally posted by Sara at home:
quote:
Originally posted by AnglRdr:
I think it's too close to call Tennessee's senate race, as well.

MSNBC has Ford way behind, double digits, but they did say that another poll has the spread in single digits. Didn't seem like it was too close to call but they had it in their list of races still up in the air.
No other poll has it that far apart.

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"When a stupid man is doing something he is ashamed of, he always declares that it is his duty."--George Bernard Shaw

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Lawgiver
Deck the Malls


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IIRC only the Mason-dixon poll has Corker-Ford seperated by double digits, the rest of the polls have it as a very close race.


ETA: Spanked by Anglrdr. This is my first spanking, is it wrong to feel so tingley ? [Razz]

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I looked at my sleeping husband and longed to plunge my elbow through his peaceful face. ~ Annissa

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Sara at home
Ding Dong! Merrily on High Definition TV


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quote:
Originally posted by AnglRdr:
No other poll has it that far apart.

Neat site. Thanks.

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Assume that all my posts will be edited at least once. Dyslexic -- can't spell, can't type, can't proofread.

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Noemi
Ding Dong! Merrily on High Definition TV


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EQT predicted:

quote:
In the Senate, I'll get more specific: I think the Republicans will win in Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming;
I think that is very accurate. Senator Thomas hasn't screwed up enough to irritate anyone and his opponent has been almost non-existant.

For our seat in the House of Representatives it has been a much closer and messier race. I think there is a very good chance that Cubin (R) will lose because she's made far to many mistakes over the year and delivered the icing on the cake by supposedly threatening the Libertarian candidate. Trauner (D) has avoided getting involved in that flap and doing any mudslinging so I think he has a very good chance.

The only firm prediction I can make is that Governorn Fruedenthal (D) will go on to his second term as governor. It's very rare that the incumbent governor doesn't get re-elected and Hunkins (and the Wyoming Republican Party chairman) have made to many mistakes to win.

Noemi

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Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult.
My blog, no guarantees about witty or intelligent content. My current projects.
Coveted Beads <---- our eBay store, new items being added somewhat regularly

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Amigone201
Happy Holly Days


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Tom Reynolds will go down in flames because everybody wants to vote for "Millionare" Jack Davis.

At least, I do.

I bet it even says on the ballot "Millionaire Jack Davis." If it just says "Jack Davis," I won't know where to find him.

I might look for "Kooky Millionaire" Jack Davis, though.

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TallGeekyGirl
O Read, O Read, The Manual


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That site AnglRdr linked to has the Senate race here in the Old Dominion even closer than I did ...

http://pollster.com/polls/?state=VA&race=senate_race

49-47 Webb, with a +/-2% margin

--------------------
See, if I tell you about it, it won't be a mystery. It'll just be a fact, an ugly, moist fact, squatting on your brain like an octopus. And you don't want an octopus squatting on your brain, do you, son? -- Stan Smith, American Dad

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Errata
Happy Xmas (Warranty Is Over)


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quote:
Originally posted by Amigone201:
Tom Reynolds will go down in flames because everybody wants to vote for "Millionare" Jack Davis.

At least, I do.

I bet it even says on the ballot "Millionaire Jack Davis." If it just says "Jack Davis," I won't know where to find him.

I might look for "Kooky Millionaire" Jack Davis, though.

Thats such an outdated term. If they mean rich, they should say rich. Millionare these days just means a homeowner, and there aren't many politicians in either party without a home or three.
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Echinodermata Q. Taft
It Came Upon a Midnight Clearance


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quote:
Originally posted by Amigone201:
Tom Reynolds will go down in flames because everybody wants to vote for "Millionare" Jack Davis.

At least, I do.

I bet it even says on the ballot "Millionaire Jack Davis."

Does he live in "Stately Davis Manor"?

--------------------
http://eqtaft.blogspot.com

Hope for the future! http://www.runobama.com

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christmas tree kitapper
It Came Upon a Midnight Clearance


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I'm hoping Gabrielle Giffords (D) wins retiring Republican Jom Kolbe's seat here in the Eighth District in Arizona. Sadly, I think John 'who cares about the environment*' Kyl will retain his Senate seat.

I suspect Napolitano win win re-election for Governor easily enough; for one thing, I'm not sure I've seen a single ad by Munsil. I wonder how many people aren't aware that he's even running? I don't think I've even seen a picture of the guy.

*The League of Conservation Voters shows that his environmental voting record is approximately 27%.

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"I have never in my life been more disappointed by a politician I voted for than I have been with George Bush. He is a total liberal."- overheard by me on the shuttle to the U of A game on Nov. 11th.

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TallGeekyGirl
O Read, O Read, The Manual


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Webb might actually stand a decent chance if the Democrats here can come together. The man has some powerful allies!

He has Governor Tim Kaine on his side, and former Governor Mark Warner (run for President, damn you!), and even (dramatic pause) former President Clinton in his corner. If Clinton's vouching for him does more good than harm, he might just win.

Of course, this is not to imply that Allen doesn't have powerful allies in the GOP as well.

I haven't been this excited about politics and participating in an election in a long time.

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See, if I tell you about it, it won't be a mystery. It'll just be a fact, an ugly, moist fact, squatting on your brain like an octopus. And you don't want an octopus squatting on your brain, do you, son? -- Stan Smith, American Dad

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AnglsWeHvHrdOnHiRdr
Happy Xmas (Warranty Is Over)


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quote:
Originally posted by Lawgiver:
Spanked by Anglrdr. This is my first spanking, is it wrong to feel so tingley ? [Razz]

No, sweetie; what you're feeling is natural and good. [Big Grin]

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"When a stupid man is doing something he is ashamed of, he always declares that it is his duty."--George Bernard Shaw

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chillas
Coventry Mall Carol


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quote:
Originally posted by E. Q. Taft:

In the Senate, I'll get more specific: I think the Republicans will win in Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming;

As far as Ohio goes, Brown (D) has a 14 point lead in the polls on DeWine (R). I don't want to be optimistic, but I would be surprised if DeWine wins.

Of seven House races in Ohio, four are leaning Democrat, one is leaning Republican and two are toss-ups.

I'm also pleased to note that the Ohio Governor's race has Strickland (D) with a 22 point lead over Blackwell (R).

edited to add party designations

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Come on, come on - spin a little tighter
Come on, come on - and the world's a little brighter


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Four Kitties
Layaway in a Manger


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Not much going on in local races: Deval Patrick (D) has lead Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) in the polls 2-to-1 for the last few months, so I think it's safe to say we're going to have our first black Governor at about 8:05 p.m. We haven't had a black statewide officeholder of any prominence since we sent Ed Brooke (R) to the Senate in '66 and '72.

If I didn't pay attention to this sort of thing, I wouldn't even know Ted Kennedy was running for re-election this year: no commercials, no debates, nuthin'. He's polling 3-to-1 over the Republican quote-challenger-unquote; I don't think Teddy has anything to worry about. I haven't heard that any of our 10 Congressmen are facing any sort of serious challenges, either.

The hot races here are all on the ballot questions: I'm guessing 2 will fail, 3 will pass, and 1 is too close to call.

Four Kitties

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Dr. Dave
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What would be funny* would be if the Dems win say 6 of the contested Republican Senate seats, but then lose the Democratic seat in Maryland. Paul Sarbanes(D)is retiring, and I heard this morning that all of the sudden Republcian Mike Steele is neck-and-neck with Democrat Ben Cardin. Cardin has been in the House for 20 years, in the State House for (approx.) 20 before that, and this Senate seat is solidly Democratic in a solidly Blue state. (We had a Republican senator 20 year ago named Mac Mathias, but by today's standards he could be a Democrat. Think Olympia Snowe.)

Let's see, predictions: Dems take the house and win some but not enough Senate seats.

Quick question: If it is 50-50, they bring Chaney out of hiding to break the tie, but does he get to vote for leadership positions as well (i.e. who is the Majority leader, who are the Committee Chairs, etc.? This happened at the beginning of the Bush term, right?

Speculative question- Lieberman has said that he would caucus with the Dems (if he wins of course). But if he wins and say the balance is 50 Reps, 49 Dems, and Lieberman (counting the other independent as a Dem)? Does he still caucus with the Dems and vote for the Dems for leadership roles?

*("Funny, hmmm; not funny, haha.")

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LeaflessMapleTree
The twelve shopping days 'til Christmas


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House: Dems up by 6

Senate: Dems - 51-49

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"For me, religion is like a rhinoceros: I don't have one, and I'd really prefer not to be trampled by yours. But it is impressive, and even beautiful, and, to be honest, the world would be slightly worse off if there weren't any."
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chillas
Coventry Mall Carol


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Sure, I think the Democrats will win, but I'm not sure if they'll be able to beat the spread.

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Come on, come on - spin a little tighter
Come on, come on - and the world's a little brighter


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Echinodermata Q. Taft
It Came Upon a Midnight Clearance


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quote:
Originally posted by chillas:
[As far as Ohio goes, Brown (D) has a 14 point lead in the polls on DeWine (R). I don't want to be optimistic, but I would be surprised if DeWine wins

I think you're right. I didn't look closely enough at that one. My bad. That makes the picture considerably better for the Democrats, I think.

I do think Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats -- in fact, though he's running as an independent, he's never (AFAIK) given up his official status of being a Democrat; he's still listed as one on the current Senate rolls. He has said repeatedly he votes with the Democrats 90 percent of the time (though I don't know how meaningful that number is; it might include non-subtantive, non-partisan votes), and really only disagrees with them on Iraq and some social issues.

Of course, considering the way even the neocons have been running from the President's handling of Iraq, Lieberman may be pretty out of synch with the Republicans on this one, too...

--------------------
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Hope for the future! http://www.runobama.com

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MaxKaladin
The First USA Noel


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quote:
Originally posted by Morgaine La Raq Star:
Texas will keep Rick Perry as Governor, not because he's the best for the job but because Texans tend to vote Republican (no Chris Bell), they won't vote in a joke (Kinky Friedman) & being female like the late Ann Richards isn't enough (Carole Keeton Strayhorn Rylander Cougar Mellencamp). So basically, most people will hold their nose & vote for Perry.

I expect Perry to win, but I expect the other candidates to have a stronger showing than might be expected. The "Trans-Texas Corridor" (AKA Toll-Roads for Everyone) plan is pretty unpopular but I think the people who vote against Perry over it will be split between the other three (well, four, there is] a Libertarian) candidates.

quote:
Originally posted by Morgaine La Raq Star:
And somewhere, electronic voting will go wrong & all Hades will break loose.

I agree there.
Posts: 716 | From: San Antonio, TX | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a moderator
CSGirl
I'll Be Home for After Christmas Sales


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quote:
Originally posted by Amigone201:
Tom Reynolds will go down in flames because everybody wants to vote for "Millionare" Jack Davis.

At least, I do.

I bet it even says on the ballot "Millionaire Jack Davis." If it just says "Jack Davis," I won't know where to find him.

I might look for "Kooky Millionaire" Jack Davis, though.

[hijak] I go to school up near Buffalo, not even from the area, and every time I see a Jack Davis sign I hear "Millionaire Jack Davis". Man those ads are pervasive, huh? [/hijak]

As far as CT, as a few people said, Lieberman'll beat out Lamont. I'll admit I don't keep up enough on other CT politics, though, not living there most of the year, and I'm not even voting this year because my parents moved a few months ago and I ddin't re-register in time. [Frown]

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Posts: 114 | From: Glastonbury, CT / Houghton, NY | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a moderator
Howard
Deck the Malls


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I'm hoping that(MS House) Rep. Erik Fleming (D) will unseat Senator Trent Lott. It might be tough, considering how hard he's work post-Katrina. He's decidedly against the insurance companies since they didn't pay to fix his house [lol]

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) will retain his office in our second district due to the lack of a strong opponent. The Fourth district (on the coast) is current held by Rep. Gene Taylor (D), and he too should retain his seat due to post-Katrina support.

ETA: Our third district is held by Charles W. Pickering Jr. (R) (son of the judge Bush appointed in recess due to racist controversy). His opponent is Jim Giles (I) http://www.rebelarmy.com and Reform Party candidate Lamonica Magee. It's safe to say that Pickering will remain in office.

I don't know much about the first district, other than that it is held by Rep. Roger Wicker (R). I'll cross my fingers and hope he loses, though.

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Posts: 311 | From: Mississippi | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a moderator
Kev
We Three Blings


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quote:
Originally posted by Morgaine La Raq Star:
Texas will keep Rick Perry as Governor, not because he's the best for the job but because Texans tend to vote Republican (no Chris Bell), they won't vote in a joke (Kinky Friedman) & being female like the late Ann Richards isn't enough (Carole Keeton Strayhorn Rylander Cougar Mellencamp). So basically, most people will hold their nose & vote for Perry.
And somewhere, electronic voting will go wrong & all Hades will break loose.

I don't care for Strayhorn and I didn't vote for her but being a woman is hardly the only thing that makes her noteworthy. She is currently the State Comptroller and previously served as the Railroad Commissioner. She also held local offices in Austin, including three consecutive terms as mayor. If you happen to agree with her platform there are plenty of reasons to vote for her, to write her off as simply the token woman candidate is insulting IMHO.

ETA: I'm not trying to say that political experience in itself is everything (or anything), but it's not like Strayhorn is a nobody who came from nowhere and decided to run for governor.

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Posts: 1126 | From: Austin, TX | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a moderator
Mistletoey Chloe
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Feingold/Obama!

What, you're not ready for 2008?

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Posts: 10111 | From: Oklahoma | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a moderator
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